It’s been 70 years since AT&T’s Bell Labs introduced a new method for converting sunlight into electricity. The telephone firm intended to replace the batteries that power equipment in remote locations. It also realised that powering devices solely with light demonstrated how science could make the future appear wonderful, so it held a press event in which sunlight kept a toy Ferris wheel spinning round and round.
Solar power is no longer considered a toy. Globally, panels currently cover over an area equivalent to half of Wales. Panels are now generating approximately 6% of the world’s electricity this year—nearly three times as much as America consumed in 1954. However, this historic expansion is only the second most astonishing aspect of the rise of solar power. The most remarkable thing is that it’s far from over!
The term “exponential growth” for solar power is not an exaggeration; it is a fact. Installed solar capacity doubles typically every three years, increasing tenfold every decade. Such consistent progress is uncommon in anything that matters. This makes it difficult for folks to understand what’s going on. Solar power was considered minor ten years ago, even by professionals who were aware of how quickly it had grown. The following tenfold increase is akin to doubling the world’s whole fleet of nuclear reactors by eight in less time than it takes to develop a single one.
By the mid- 2030s, solar cells are likely to be the world’s single largest source of electrical power. By the 2040s, they may be the primary source of not only electricity, but all energy. Based on current trends, the total cost of the electricity they generate is expected to be less than half that of the cheapest accessible today. This will not stop climate change, but it may delay it significantly. Much of the world, especially Africa, where 600 million people still lack access to sufficient electricity, will feel more energized. That feeling will be new and transformative for humanity.
Consider solar economics to see why this isn’t just a dream. Costs decrease as a produced good’s cumulative output grows. As costs fall, demand rises. As demand rises, so does production—and costs fall even further. This cannot continue indefinitely; output, demand, or both will eventually become constrained. Earlier energy transitions—from wood to coal, coal to oil, or oil to gas—increased extraction efficiency, but this was eventually countered by the expense of obtaining new fuel.
Solar electricity has no such constraint. Silicon-rich sand, sunny regions, and human inventiveness are all ample resources for producing solar cells and planting them on solar farms. Making cells requires energy, which is becoming increasingly abundant thanks to solar electricity. Demand is both enormous and elastic; if you make electricity cheaper, people will find applications for it. As a result, unlike previous energy sources, solar electricity has consistently been less expensive and will continue to be so.
Source: Economist
