while lithium-ion batteries are central to the energy transition, supply is constrained less by mining than by refining, which is heavily concentrated in China (≈60% of global refining). Most value creation (refining→battery making) happens outside mining nations, risking “re-primarization,” environmental/social externalities, and a policy “race to the bottom” to attract foreign capital.
Geology and costs also shape supply: hard-rock operations like Australia’s are cited as having ~45% lower costs than brine, even though South America’s Lithium Triangle holds far larger reserves. New Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE)could flip economics by lowering brine costs and lifting global raw supply by an estimated 8%.
Demand weakness in early 2023—especially from EVs (which used ~61% of lithium in 2022)—and higher interest rates pulled prices down, yet investment continues; Exxon plans brine extraction in the Smackover formation by 2027, signaling long-term confidence and U.S. supply-security goals. Political uncertainty in Chile and Argentina will influence how much public/private capital shapes the sector. Overall, mining countries must build domestic refining and downstream capacity to capture more value and avoid remaining mere commodity exporters.
