From July 1959 to October 2025, wheat prices have experienced dramatic fluctuations, reflecting global agricultural cycles, geopolitical disruptions, inflationary pressures, and changing demand patterns.
Over this 66-year span, the recorded minimum price was $1.17 per bushel, while the maximum soared to $12.94 per bushel. The average price hovered around $3.82, with a median of $3.53, showing a long-term upward drift consistent with inflation and production cost growth.
1. The Early Stability (1959–1970s)
During the 1960s and early 1970s, wheat prices remained relatively stable, fluctuating near the $2 mark. This stability reflected strong post-war agricultural productivity, government grain reserves, and limited global shocks. The introduction of new high-yield wheat varieties during the Green Revolution further helped maintain affordable grain prices globally.
2. Oil Shocks and Global Inflation (1973–1980s)
The 1973 oil crisis triggered a surge in agricultural input costs. Fertilizer and transport became more expensive, pushing wheat prices upward. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, volatility grew as inflation spread through global markets. Wheat prices temporarily exceeded $4 per bushel, signaling the first major break from the post-war price stability.
3. Surplus Years and Agricultural Policy (1980s–1990s)
The 1980s brought bumper harvests in the U.S. and Soviet grain exports, leading to oversupply and falling prices. Subsidy-driven production in major exporting nations—especially the U.S., Canada, and Australia—kept the global market well-stocked. Prices dipped below $3, with short-lived recoveries due to occasional droughts.
4. The 2000s Food Commodity Boom
A sharp turning point came in the mid-2000s, driven by biofuel demand, global economic growth, and extreme weather. From 2007 to 2008, wheat prices skyrocketed to nearly $12 per bushel, the highest in recorded history up to that point. This spike triggered food inflation worldwide and unrest in several developing countries.
Following 2008, prices corrected but remained well above the historical mean, entering a “new normal” range between $5–$7 per bushel.
5. 2010s–2020: Climate Variability and Market Globalization
The 2010s were marked by alternating droughts and surpluses. Russia and Ukraine became major exporters, changing the structure of global trade. Wheat prices saw moderate peaks tied to El Niño events and regional droughts but rarely exceeded $8. Global logistics improvements and digital commodity trading helped stabilize price swings.
6. 2022–2025: War, Inflation, and Uncertainty
The Russia–Ukraine conflict (2022) sharply affected global wheat supply, as both countries accounted for over a quarter of exports. Prices again approached record highs, exceeding $12 per bushel, before easing gradually as alternate supply chains (notably from India, Australia, and North America) adapted.
Even after stabilization, the long-term rolling average suggests that prices remain structurally higher than the historical average, largely due to energy costs, climate stress, and geopolitical uncertainty.
7. Long-Term Trend and Outlook
The one-year rolling average shows an unmistakable long-term upward trend—steady growth through inflationary decades, punctuated by geopolitical shocks and weather crises. While technology and yield improvements have moderated volatility, climate change and regional conflicts are now the dominant sources of risk.
Looking ahead, analysts expect wheat prices to remain elevated, fluctuating in the $6–$9 per bushel range through the late 2020s, assuming moderate harvest conditions and no major disruptions in export regions.
Wheat’s price history is a reflection of humanity’s balance between innovation and vulnerability. From the calm of the 1960s to the volatility of the 21st century, each price swing tells a story of weather, war, and human resilience.
The modern wheat market is more interconnected—and more fragile—than ever, and its future will hinge on how the world addresses both climate stability and global food security.
